Our view on future tariffs
How might US and EU tariffs impact the Scotch whisky market?
In retaliation to United States (US) tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, the European Union (EU) announced plans to impose a 50% tariff on American whiskey, including bourbon, starting April 1, 2025. This measure is expected to significantly affect US whiskey exports to the EU, which is the largest export market for American spirits. If the US decides to impose counter tariffs on Scotch single malt whisky, how could this impact the overall market?
No US tariffs on Scotch whisky yet
As of March 2025, the United States does not currently impose tariffs on single malt Scotch whisky imports. The previous 25% tariff, implemented in October 2019 due to a trade dispute between the U.S. and the European Union, was suspended in June 2021 for a five-year period, set to expire in June 2026. The US administration recently signaled intentions to impose tariffs on all imported alcoholic beverages in the near future, which could encompass Scotch whisky. Additionally, President Donald Trump signed a measure to increase US tariffs to match those charged by other countries on imports, aiming to address perceived trade imbalances.
Previous impact of tariffs on the Scotch single malt market
In 2019, despite the imposition of a 25% US tariff on single malt Scotch whisky imports, the global export value of Scotch whisky increased by 4.4% to £4.91 billion that year, with export volumes rising by 2.4% to 1.31 billion 70cl bottles. The US remained the largest export market by value, accounting for approximately £1.1 billion in sales. However, significant growth was observed in other markets like Asia, Africa, India and France.
Resilience of global whisky demand
While the US tariffs negatively affected Scotch whisky exports to the American market in the past, producers successfully pivoted to other key markets. This diversification helped mitigate the negative impact of the US tariffs and strengthened Scotch whisky’s global presence.
Even though US tariffs negatively impacted Scotch whisky exports to America, the industry successfully adapted by expanding into other countries, leveraging duty-free zones, and pushing premium and collectible whiskies. These factors helped Scotch whisky exports continue their upward trend, making the industry resilient and positioned for long-term growth despite trade challenges.
Scotch whisky remains strong even in challenging trade environments
At Scotch Whisky Investments, we believe that the resilience of Scotch whisky exports during the US tariff period highlights its strength as a long-term investment. The industry’s ability to pivot to other high-growth markets, leverage duty-free zones, and focus on premium and collectible whiskies proves that Scotch whisky remains a valuable and appreciating asset even in challenging trade environments. This adaptability ensures continued demand and solidifies Scotch whisky as a strategic and secure investment, even when new tariffs may be imposed.
At Scotch Whisky Investments, we specialize in crafting bespoke whisky portfolios that align with your investment goals. Interested in exploring Options and Possibilities? contact today to learn more about whisky as an alternative asset.
Sources: www.scotch-whisky.org.uk | www.statista.com